As voters head to the polls, Hollywood figures who have backed Democratic candidates are watching a close contest for control of Congress. The House appears more likely to change hands: Democrats need to gain three seats, while more than a dozen Republican-held districts are described as vulnerable.
The Senate outlook is less certain. Democrats need to win four of the 22 Republican-held seats up for election while retaining all 13 of their own, or five seats if they lose one. Republicans are trailing in at least eight races, but polling errors in their favor during the Trump era could make some Democratic leads less secure. The report notes that midterm polls have tended to be more accurate.
Alaska, Maine and Iowa are among the closest contests where that polling uncertainty could help Republicans. In Alaska, controversy over an alleged effort by Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign to place a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot may also affect the race. Republican candidates in Maine and Iowa are described as popular with voters.
Democrats have clearer advantages in Texas, Ohio and North Carolina, though none of those outcomes is certain. In Texas, James Talarico has extended his lead over Ken Paxton, while Roy Cooper is firmly ahead in North Carolina. Former senator Sherrod Brown has also built a narrow lead over Ohio’s Jon Husted.
Kansas could provide Democrats with another opportunity. Their candidate, Rev. Adam Hamilton, has opened some distance over Republican incumbent Roger Marshall, who is unpopular, but the state has not elected a Democratic senator since the Great Depression. South Carolina is another possible upset: political newcomer Darline Graham has faced criticism over her family ties to the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, potentially improving the chances of challenger Annie Andrews.
Democrats would also need to defend their own competitive seats. The report describes their positions in Minnesota, Georgia and New Hampshire as likely to hold, but raises greater uncertainty in Michigan. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has a five-point polling lead, though a split within his party could cost him support among moderates.
Even if Democrats fall short of a majority and the Senate ends up tied 50-50, the result could constrain the Republican agenda by allowing a single Republican senator to block a vote. Separately, Florida’s governor’s race offers Democrats a possible breakthrough: David Jolly is within a few points of Republican Byron Donalds, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement.
For Democrats and their Hollywood supporters, the stakes include a potential check on Trump and the chance to control both chambers of Congress. The report notes that Democrats have held both only once in the past 16 years and three times since 1994.
Sources: The Hollywood Reporter.